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Will Aussie repeat the hat trick? Forecast as of 03.11.2020

Will Aussie repeat the hat trick? Forecast as of 03.11.2020
The second quarter is likely to be the same as the second one. However, the disaster is not going to be so dramatic. If so, we have a pattern to trade the AUDUSD. Let us discuss the Australian dollar outlook and make up a trading plan.

Monthly Australian dollar fundamental analysis

What doesn't kill makes one stronger. The RBA’s monetary expansion should have crashed the Australian dollar. RBA not only cut the cash rate down to the all-time low of 0.1% but also boosted the purchases of assets with a maturity of 5-10 years within QE by AU$100 billion. The RBA has become one of the first to react to the second pandemic wave. However, the AUDUSD, instead of falling, surged up to the bottom of figure 71. Bloomberg experts anticipate such measures of the regulator, and the time for maneuver was not right. It is not wise to ease monetary policy on the day of the US presidential election, is it?
According to Philip Lowe, the increase of the QE size will support economic recovery amid lower costs of funding and exchange rate, as well as higher assets’ price than it would be in the opposite case. RBA must have tried to improve financial conditions, as the Fed did. It was one of the reasons for the US economic growth in the third quarter. In the fourth quarter, the US GDP should face a downturn because of the difficult epidemiological situation. Australia, on the contrary, has coped with the coronavirus through a strict lockdown in Victoria. So, Australia’s GDP can well go up.

Dynamics of COVID-19 cases in Australia


https://preview.redd.it/z0b18quhc0x51.jpg?width=629&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ed290b23768a625aba0bb3c0a891f975388ab309
Source: Trading Economics
According to the RBA forecasts, Australia’s GDP in the 2020/2021 financial year will expand by 6%, in 2021/2022 - by another 4%. The forecast for the unemployment peak has been cut from 10% to 8%. The core inflation will grow by 1% in 2021, and by 1.5% in 2022.
In addition to the domestic positive factors, foreign news also supports Aussie. Despite the disputes between Australia and China, which imposed tariffs on Australian barley, launched an anti-dumping investigation into Australian wine, and suspended imports of coal and lobsters from Australia, I believe that the trade relationships will be improved. China is the largest market for Australia. China’s economic growth by 1.9%, according to the IMF forecast, will support the AUDUSD bulls. Based on the yuan price changes, the AUDUSD looks undervalued.

Dynamics of AUDUSD and USDCNY


https://preview.redd.it/mqvioyaic0x51.jpg?width=634&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=8db6d6a5debdaf671ce4902ce6fc43f2960f4ebb
Source: Trading Economics

Monthly AUDUSD trading plan

In general, market sentiment indicates that the fourth quarter for the global economy will be similar to the second one, although the disaster scale will be smaller. If so, we have a pattern to trade the Aussie. In late March, I recommended buying the Australian dollar in the range of $0.59-$0.62 amid the expectations of the V-shaped recovery of China’s economy, and this trading idea was winning. Now, there is another chance to repeat the hat trick provided that Joe Biden wins the election.
Biden also promises to attack China for its economic and human rights violations, the US-China relations are going to improve. As a result, the entire Pacific region will benefit. Australia, with its successful COVID-19 strategy, is no exception. If Biden wins, buy the AUDUSD with targets at 0.729 and 0.733.
For more information follow the link to the website of the LiteForex
https://www.liteforex.com/blog/analysts-opinions/will-aussie-repeat-the-hat-trick-forecast-as-of-03112020/?uid=285861726&cid=62423

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Dollar is getting high on politics. Forecast as of 14.10.2020

Dollar is getting high on politics. Forecast as of 14.10.2020

Fundamental US dollar forecast today

The optimism about the ‘blue wave’ prospects in the US, when democrats take control of the White House and Congress and boost the US fiscal stimulus, is gradually being replaced by skepticism. The Republicans may not lose the majority in the Senate. If so, the disputes about the financial aid package could continue after November 3. Does it make sense to buy stocks? The S&P 500 has dropped. The People’s Bank of China is willing to weaken the yuan. Speculators are existing record euro longs. Under the above conditions, the EURUSD fell below the support 1.178 earlier indicated.
The bets on Joe Biden’s victory are bets against the US dollar. However, this fact alone is not enough. If Democrats fail to control the Congress, the Republicans will oppose the new president just like their opponents did in 2017 when Donald Trump tried to carry out the tax and the medical reforms. Or like it was in 2020 when the White House offers a stimulus package, and the House rejects it. After the US election is over, continuous political uncertainty should support safe-havens, including the US dollar.
Investors wonder what will be after November 3. I don’t think the bet on the growing gap between the US and the euro-area economies should stop working soon. According to San Francisco Fed president Mary C. Daly, the US economy is strong and should withstand a new storm. At the same time, investor confidence in Germany's GDP rebound has fallen to the lowest level over the past five months. The number of COVID-19 cases in Germany has reached 6500, the highest value since April’s peak.

Dynamics of Germany’s economic sentiment


Source: Bloomberg
The expectations are also pressed down by the International Monetary Fund. The IMF has revised the US GDP forecast for 2020 up to -4.3%, from the previous gauge of 8%. The forecast for the euro-area economy has been raised from -10.2% to -8.3%. According to the IMF, the global GDP will contract this year not by 5.2%, projected in June, but by 4.4%. The recession has been mitigated by huge stimulus packages provided by the world’s central banks and governments and the rebound of China’s economy. According to the IMF, China’s economy has already reached the level of 2019 and will exceed it by 1.9 at the end of 2020. In 2021, the Chinese GDP should reach 8.2%.

GDP forecasts


Source: Financial Times
Investors also doubt that the Fed’s monetary expansion is more aggressive than that of the ECB. According to Bloomberg's research, the European Central Bank is buying more assets within the QE than needed to cover the euro-area budget deficit. So, the ECB monetary expansion seems to be more aggressive than the Fed’s.

Budget deficit and QE, % of GDP


Source: Bloomberg

EURUSD trading plan today

So, the bet on the divergence in the economic expansion and monetary policy may not work after the US presidential election. Speculators are exiting the euro longs, and the EURUSD is going down towards 1.1715 and 1.1625. Hold down short trades entered at level 1.178.
For more information follow the link to the website of the LiteForex
https://www.liteforex.com/blog/analysts-opinions/dollar-is-getting-high-on-politics-forecast-as-of-14102020/?uid=285861726&cid=62423
submitted by Maxvelgus to Finance_analytics [link] [comments]

[Event] Increasing fiscal transparency in the government and financial sector

Capacity Development Strategy for Rwanda

Forward-looking policy priorities will focus on improving fiscal transparency, domestic revenue collection, interest rate-based monetary policy framework, improving and harmonizing statistical reporting which includes real statistics, budget preparation, external sector statistics, and promoting private investment.
Rwanda is a high-intensity Technical Assistance (TA) recipient with a good track record for use of IMF technical assistance. The authorities’ proven commitment/ownership mitigates risks, and future success will require continued close coordination between the authorities, TA providers, and the AFR team. In the most recent fiscal year, TA was provided for:
Rwanda will begin implementing Forward-Looking TA Agendas into action to further develop the country's economical infrastructure.

Improve Transparency of Government Spending

Fiscal Transparence Evaluation; improving frequency and coverage of fiscal and debt data, implementing GFS-2014 formal fiscal data, and development of IPSAS accounting manual and providing IPSAS training

Improve domestic revenue mobilization through reducing and better targeting exemptions and improving revenue administration core functions

Follouw up TA on tax expenditures, reviewing the integrity of the taxpayer reigster, strengthening tax audi capacity of telecommunications sector, devloping a domestic taxes department headquarters function with its process flow and staff roles and responsibilites, as well as evaluation of revised property tax law.

Enable comprehensive, credible, and policy based budget preparation

Developing a roadmap for the implementation of performance based budgeting throughout the government sector

Enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy implementation

Training on Forecasting and Policy Analysis (FPAS)

Enhance financial sector supervision

Assisting in implementing a risk based supervision (RBS) including for insurance companies, adopiting IFRS, enhanscing RBS for MFIs and SACCos, and implementing Basel II/III

Establish an effective macroprudential policy framework and reofm and develop national payment system

Enhancing macroprudential oversight of non-bank insurance companies and pension firms, enhancing oversight policy framework, and oversight training.
submitted by fulanka26 to Geosim [link] [comments]

[Event] Increasing fiscal transparency in the government and financial sector

Capacity Development Strategy for Rwanda

Forward-looking policy priorities will focus on improving fiscal transparency, domestic revenue collection, interest rate-based monetary policy framework, improving and harmonizing statistical reporting which includes real statistics, budget preparation, external sector statistics, and promoting private investment.
Rwanda is a high-intensity Technical Assistance (TA) recipient with a good track record for use of IMF technical assistance. The authorities’ proven commitment/ownership mitigates risks, and future success will require continued close coordination between the authorities, TA providers, and the AFR team. In the most recent fiscal year, TA was provided for:
Rwanda will begin implementing Forward-Looking TA Agendas into action to further develop the country's economical infrastructure.

Improve Transparency of Government Spending

Fiscal Transparence Evaluation; improving frequency and coverage of fiscal and debt data, implementing GFS-2014 formal fiscal data, and development of IPSAS accounting manual and providing IPSAS training

Improve domestic revenue mobilization through reducing and better targeting exemptions and improving revenue administration core functions

Follouw up TA on tax expenditures, reviewing the integrity of the taxpayer reigster, strengthening tax audi capacity of telecommunications sector, devloping a domestic taxes department headquarters function with its process flow and staff roles and responsibilites, as well as evaluation of revised property tax law.

Enable comprehensive, credible, and policy based budget preparation

Developing a roadmap for the implementation of performance based budgeting throughout the government sector

Enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy implementation

Training on Forecasting and Policy Analysis (FPAS)

Enhance financial sector supervision

Assisting in implementing a risk based supervision (RBS) including for insurance companies, adopiting IFRS, enhanscing RBS for MFIs and SACCos, and implementing Basel II/III

Establish an effective macroprudential policy framework and reofm and develop national payment system

Enhancing macroprudential oversight of non-bank insurance companies and pension firms, enhancing oversight policy framework, and oversight training.
submitted by fulanka26 to Geosim [link] [comments]

[ECON] 2022 People's Bank of China Statement

Press Conference with the Governor of the People's Bank of China 任中国人民银行行长 Yi Gang 易纲 on current monetary and regulatory matters in the People's Republic of China for the year 2022
Dear Ladies and Gentlemen
The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is gladdened to announce that the efforts made by the Bank to consolidate financial markets and reign in unproductive credit and the misappropriation in debt lending are seeing bountiful returns. For the 2022 year forecast, we are thus heartened to state that the economy has exponentially preformed to bring growth above 7 percent, beating negative analysis on efforts on the PBOC and government's meaningful reforms to address core structural issues that have threatened the Chinese and global economy.
While we have identified specific measures in relation to consumer demand and business growth, in conjunction with the improving regulatory framework, we foresee promising inflationary movement and are pleased to see an adaptive labour market take hold in overall trends for key benchmarks.
In regards to the current developments in the Banks's stimulus efforts, we shall maintain the current level of market guidance and capital assistance. While we continue this approach, we are constantly assessing the Mainland's capital markets liquidity and should concerns be spotted that identify general overheating, the PBOC is ready to address those concerns and enforce targeted measures.
Now, onto the main elements of the year's statement: the current status on the internationalisation of the Renminbi and policy responses to optimise a favourable environment as well as new guidelines on capital market
The following discussion shall be complimented with the following handout:

The Renminbi - The People's Currency, and Soon the World's?

The Continued Dollar Dominance
Chinese Efforts to Open Up the Renminbi - An Uneven Effort
Making The Cross Across the Riverbed Towards A More Global Renminbi
The PBOC has issued the following in its Guiding Measures to the Chinese Mainland and SAR financial markets:
This new rule will further buoy the offshore Renminbi (“Dim Sum”) bond market and accelerate the pace of Renminbi internationalisation.
submitted by Relativity_One to GlobalPowers [link] [comments]

[EVENT] Increasing fiscal transparency in the government and financial sector

May 4, 2022

Capacity Development Strategy for Rwanda

Forward-looking policy priorities will focus on improving fiscal transparency, domestic revenue collection, interest rate-based monetary policy framework, improving and harmonizing statistical reporting which includes real statistics, budget preparation, external sector statistics, and promoting private investment.
Rwanda is a high-intensity Technical Assistance (TA) recipient with a good track record for use of IMF technical assistance. The authorities’ proven commitment/ownership mitigates risks, and future success will require continued close coordination between the authorities, TA providers, and the AFR team. In the most recent fiscal year, TA was provided for:
Rwanda will begin implementing Forward-Looking TA Agendas into action to further develop the country's economical infrastructure.

Improve Transparency of Government Spending

Fiscal Transparence Evaluation; improving frequency and coverage of fiscal and debt data, implementing GFS-2014 formal fiscal data, and development of IPSAS accounting manual and providing IPSAS training

Improve domestic revenue mobilization through reducing and better targeting exemptions and improving revenue administration core functions

Follouw up TA on tax expenditures, reviewing the integrity of the taxpayer reigster, strengthening tax audi capacity of telecommunications sector, devloping a domestic taxes department headquarters function with its process flow and staff roles and responsibilites, as well as evaluation of revised property tax law.

Enable comprehensive, credible, and policy based budget preparation

Developing a roadmap for the implementation of performance based budgeting throughout the government sector

Enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy implementation

Training on Forecasting and Policy Analysis (FPAS)

Enhance financial sector supervision

Assisting in implementing a risk based supervision (RBS) including for insurance companies, adopiting IFRS, enhanscing RBS for MFIs and SACCos, and implementing Basel II/III

Establish an effective macroprudential policy framework and reofm and develop national payment system

Enhancing macroprudential oversight of non-bank insurance companies and pension firms, enhancing oversight policy framework, and oversight training.
submitted by fulanka26 to GlobalPowers [link] [comments]

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